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Forecast Discussion for Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 252006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1006 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020

High pressure north of the state will drive moderate to fresh
trade winds through Saturday. Winds will weaken Sunday and Monday
with daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes dominating for
much of next week. Clouds with light showers will impact island
interiors each afternoon followed by a focus shifting to windward
areas during the nighttime. Warm daytime temperatures will continue.


A 1024 mb high is centered about 1300 miles northeast of Hawaii
and driving moderate to fresh trades across area today. Visible
satellite shows scattered clouds and isolated showers focusing
over the windward slopes. Mostly sunny skies prevail across the
leeward areas with the exception of the typical cloud build ups
forming along the Kona slopes of the Big Island. The current
weather pattern will persist through the day.

Some showers may fill in tonight across windward areas, but
Saturday should be similar to today. Sunday into Monday will see a
weakening trend in the trade winds a front approaches from the
northwest and the high shifts away from the area. Daytime sea
breezes and nighttime land breezes will take over around Monday
and will continue for much of next week. Clouds with light
showers will impact island interiors each afternoon followed by
a focus shifting to windward areas during the nighttime. Warm and
muggy daytime temperatures will continue.


Locally breezy trades and a relatively dry airmass will remain through
the forecast period. Prevailing VFR is forecast with only
isolated/brief instances of MVFR expected within heavier windward
and mauka showers.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate, low-level turbulence
over and south through west of the mountains of all islands.
Conditions will likely continue into this evening.


A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will maintain
fresh to locally strong trades through tonight, then gradually
trend down over the weekend. Trades may become light enough for
localized land and sea breezes as early as Sunday. Winds are
expected to remain in the light to moderate range through most of
next week with localized land and sea breezes. The current Small
Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight for the windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island.

Latest readings from the PacIOOS Pauwela buoy is indicating a
gradually drop of swell height and period. The current north-
northwest swell should continue to ease through the weekend, with
small surf expected by Sunday along north facing shores. Looking
out toward next week, a series of lows passing far north of the
state will bring multiple swells mainly out of the north-
northwest for the second half of next week.

Surf along south facing shores will trend up up over the weekend
as a new, long-period south-southwest swell fills in. Local
PacIOOS buoy near Lanai is showing long-period forerunners
starting to arrive this morning. This swell should continue to
fill in tonight and peak late Saturday into Sunday and trend down
early next week.

Surf along along east facing shores will remain small through the
weekend. A small easterly swell from tropical cyclone Lowell in
the eastern Pacific can`t be ruled out early next week, especially
for the eastern end of the state.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Honolulu, HI (HFO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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