HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE
MONDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai East, Kauai
Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 550 miles south-southwest of Lihue
- 15.2N 163.7W
- Storm Intensity 120 mph
- Movement North or 350 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 11 am HST, the eye of major Hurricane Lowell was located about
550 miles south-southwest of Kauai. Lowell has maximum sustained winds
of 120 mph, and is now moving toward the north at 6 mph. Lowell is
expected to turn more toward the north- northeast tonight through
Tuesday while accelerating. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
in the short term, with gradual weakening expected tonight into
Monday. The eye of Lowell is currently forecast to make it's closest
approach to the main Hawaiian Islands Monday night, passing 90 to 150
miles west of Niihau. Lowell is expected to remain a hurricane while
passing near Hawaii.

Strong, gusty winds on the eastern side of Lowell's circulation are
expected to affect Kauai and Niihau as Hurricane Lowell passes. Winds
will increase on Monday as the hurricane approaches the western end of
the chain. Based on the current forecast, tropical storm force winds,
sustained 39 mph or higher, are expected Monday afternoon. Plan to
have your preparations for damaging winds complete by midday, with
winds peaking Monday night. Even higher gusts, 60 mph or more, are
possible over Kauai and Niihau where winds are accelerated by terrain.

Starting later today, a very large shield of deep tropical moisture
surrounding Lowell will spread northward over the main Hawaiian
islands from south to north, bringing increasing showers. Squally
downpours could lead to flash flooding, along with mudslides in steep
terrain. Rainbands could become persistent and anchored in some areas,
which would exacerbate the flash flood threat. The risk of flash
flooding and mudslides is greatest for Kauai and Niihau, but also
exists for other islands as well due to the extent of the moisture
associated with Lowell. Over a foot of rain is possible over portions
of Kauai, mainly over the interior mountains.

Surf is expected to increase quickly on south and west facing shores
tonight, reaching warning levels by Monday. Damaging surf and some
coastal inundation are expected along the immediate coast on exposed
south and west facing shores on Kauai and Niihau Monday and Monday
night, before diminishing on Tuesday. Highest surf heights in those
areas may reach 20 to 30 feet, along with 1 to 3 feet of coastal
inundation.

Conditions will become favorable for fast-moving, short-lived
waterspouts and tornadoes in the rainbands associated with Lowell,
mainly near Kauai and Niihau, Monday afternoon. This threat will
continue into Monday night, then diminish quickly Tuesday morning.



POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the
Big Island.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big
Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu HI around 5 PM HST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...

South and southwesterly swells from Hurricane Lowell will keep
surf elevated above High Surf Advisory conditions across south-
and west-facing shores through Monday night. The northward turn
Lowell is currently executing will cause a rapid increase in
swell, likely bringing surf along some of these shores to warning
levels on Monday. These swells are then expected to drop off
quickly on Tuesday. A large, medium-period east swell from
Tropical Storm Karina will also persist through at least Monday,
producing advisory level surf along east facing shores.

* WHAT...Surf up to 10 feet along south facing shores, increasing
to 14 feet by Sunday night. Surf up to 10 feet along west facing
shores of the Big Island. Surf up to 10 feet along east facing
shores.

* WHERE...South and east facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands...
and west facing shores of the Big Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM HST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Moderate. Strong breaking waves and strong currents
will make swimming dangerous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The High Surf Advisory is likely to be
upgraded to a warning for affected south- and west-facing shores
on Monday as surf heights are expected to rapidly rise to
warning levels. High surf will coincide with monthly high tides,
creating the potential for impacts to harbor entrances,
channels, as well as vulnerable coastal properties and
infrastructure including roadways.

Heed all advice from ocean safety officials. When in doubt, don't
go out.

Moisture along the eastern flank of Hurricane Lowell will bring
periods of heavy rain to the main Hawaiian Islands late Sunday
through Tuesday.

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.

* WHERE...Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, The Big Island and Kahoolawe.

* WHEN...From noon HST today through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Flood prone roads and other low lying areas may be closed
due to elevated runoff and overflowing streams. Urban areas may
receive more significant flooding and property damage due to rapid
runoff.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Moisture along the eastern flank of Hurricane Lowell will bring
periods of heavy rain to the main Hawaiian islands Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday. Initially, the threat of heavy rain
will be highest along windward and mountain areas, then the
threat will spread everywhere as the winds become more southerly
by Monday.
- Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, The Big Island and Kahoolawe.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.